Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:19 am at New York)

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:36, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:57	HNL 14:26	12%	4%	0.2%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	20%	4%	0.5%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:36 → MSP 08:32DL 2390	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	13h 07m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	14h 19m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:05 → DTW 08:54DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 02m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	15h 43m	99%	78%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5	13h 56m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419	14h 09m	97%	69%
American Details →	JFK 12:43 → LAX 15:41AA 255	2h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297	13h 58m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	56m Seattle	SEA 21:05 → HNL 00:01 +1AS 901	13h 32m	73%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON