Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 10m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	5h 21m	91%	84%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → HOU 20:08AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 26m	88%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON