Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 5809 Republic	JFK 10:09	IAD 11:38	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5779 Republic	JFK 15:59	IAD 17:28	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 12m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 44m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	8h 06m	99%	87%
American Details →	JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → IAD 17:53AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 54m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 01m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:55DL 2443	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	97%	85%
American Details →	JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 21:24 → IAD 22:56AA 2608	5h 56m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON