tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1381 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:20 IAH 11:07 20% 6% 0.9% 66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 14:29 IAH 17:19 35% 12% 2.6% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 44m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 11h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 17m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223 8h 11m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 59m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327 7h 29m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:03AA 398 7h 04m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 3h 02m Detroit DTW 12:25 → IAH 14:15DL 1307 8h 00m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 14:52 → LAX 17:43DL 771 52m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 10h 07m 75% 61%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 6h 12m 74% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON