Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2440 JFK 18:19 → LAS 20:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	5%	1%	0.6%	85%
AA 1473 American	JFK 08:12	LAS 10:48	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:40	LAS 16:17	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:07	LAS 17:42	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:12	LAS 14:49	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	13%	3%	0.7%	71%
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:45	LAS 19:30	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:19	LAS 20:59	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	55m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	7h 42m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55DL 1672	7h 41m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323	1h 23m Austin	AUS 15:29 → LAS 16:20DL 2260	8h 10m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON