Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 29 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1023 JFK 18:08 → LAX 20:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	6%	1%	0.9%	89%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:59	LAX 09:58	7%	2%	0.8%	83%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	7%	1%	0.8%	88%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	7%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	7%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	8%	2%	0.7%	78%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:39	LAX 12:27	8%	2%	0.8%	83%
DL 767 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:49	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	10%	2%	0.8%	81%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:04	LAX 13:52	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:52	LAX 17:43	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 20:00	LAX 23:24	13%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	14%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:41	LAX 19:31	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	15%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	15%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:54	LAX 18:47	15%	3%	0.6%	75%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:33	LAX 19:21	15%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:47	LAX 20:38	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	16%	3%	0.7%	73%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	16%	5%	0.8%	58%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:55	LAX 23:42	19%	6%	0.8%	54%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:08	LAX 20:55	19%	6%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 08:10 → PHX 10:30DL 791	1h 45m Phoenix	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 32m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 17m	96%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON