Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 5408 at 16:42, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5408 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 16:42	MCI 18:42	16%	4%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	8h 57m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:10 → DTW 09:03DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	7h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	7h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	8h 50m	99%	87%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MCI 13:50AA 3233	6h 51m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	7h 18m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → MCI 19:07DL 1130	6h 57m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323	2h 59m Austin	AUS 17:05 → MCI 19:16DL 3577 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON