Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2228 JFK 15:55 → MIA 18:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	5%	1%	1.1%	95%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	8%	2%	1.1%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	11%	2%	1.1%	85%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	19%	4%	1.4%	78%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 11:10	MIA 14:15	21%	5%	1.4%	76%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	23%	10%	1.8%	70%
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	23%	9%	2.2%	74%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	26%	11%	2.2%	72%
AA 1922 American	JFK 20:55	MIA 23:54	28%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 642 American	JFK 14:43	MIA 17:45	28%	10%	3.6%	no record
AA 2603 American Flight history →	JFK 18:08	MIA 21:08	30%	11%	2.2%	66%
AA 2228 American	JFK 15:55	MIA 18:57	30%	10%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON