Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2390 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2390 JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2245 JFK 18:04 → MSP 19:54 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2390 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:15	MSP 09:25	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 2414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:35	MSP 13:50	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 8963 Delta	JFK 11:01	MSP 12:48	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2245 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:04	MSP 19:54	23%	7%	0.7%	70%
DL 4933 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:20	MSP 21:00	30%	15%	9.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON