Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1322 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1322 Delta	JFK 07:02	MSY 09:02	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:31	MSY 18:02	21%	9%	1.9%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 28m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	9h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	8h 17m	99%	88%
American Details →	JFK 06:34 → DCA 07:57AA 4671 · flown by Republic	3h 38m Washington	DCA 11:35 → MSY 13:26AA 2586	7h 52m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → MSY 23:43DL 2224	7h 03m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	3h 54m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	8h 56m	100%	83%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 12:58 → MSY 14:05AA 2030	7h 06m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678	6h 24m	95%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON