tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:29 ONT 22:35 25% 9% 1.0% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 9h 16m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 10h 21m 97% 87%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:41AS 19 1h 49m Portland PDX 14:30 → ONT 16:52AS 2093 · flown by Horizon 9h 53m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 31m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → ONT 12:20AA 2661 8h 18m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 10h 39m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 2h 06m Phoenix PHX 16:49 → ONT 18:17AA 1666 8h 48m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 8h 17m 90% 77%
AmericanDetails → JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 10h 57m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON