Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2369 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 2369 JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 135 JFK 10:09 → PHX 12:27 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	9%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	9%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	JFK 09:14	PHX 11:24	11%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	14%	4%	1.1%	82%
AA 2606 American	JFK 17:24	PHX 19:45	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:35	PHX 21:08	18%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 819 American	JFK 19:17	PHX 21:37	19%	6%	1.1%	no record
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:09	PHX 12:27	20%	5%	1.1%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	89%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	7h 14m	88%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON