Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4734 at 16:26 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4734 JFK 16:26 → PIT 18:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1195 JFK 21:55 → PIT 23:46 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4734 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 16:26	PIT 18:05	13%	5%	2.3%	86%
AA 4611 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 20:30	PIT 22:27	15%	5%	1.7%	75%
DL 5685 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:10	PIT 17:15	15%	6%	4.4%	78%
YX 5754 Republic	JFK 19:43	PIT 21:22	16%	6%	1.6%	no record
B6 1195 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:55	PIT 23:46	24%	10%	1.7%	66%
DL 5086 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	PIT 11:45	20%	8%	5.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON