Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 23:09, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 23:09	PVD 00:19	19%	5%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 06:34 → DCA 07:57AA 4671 · flown by Republic	2h 18m Washington	DCA 10:15 → PVD 11:54AA 5619 · flown by PSA	5h 20m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	8h 40m	100%	91%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 13:50 → PVD 16:03AA 2679	8h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	6h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	8h 16m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:10 → DTW 09:03DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → PVD 12:22DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 12m	96%	86%
American Details →	JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 16:20 → PVD 18:30AA 2338	6h 31m	98%	86%
JetBlue Details →	JFK 10:09 → MCO 12:59B6 183	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 14:04 → PVD 17:01B6 1075	6h 52m	82%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON