Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5330 at 09:36 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 5330 JFK 09:36 → ROC 10:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 1186 JFK 22:10 → ROC 23:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5330 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 09:36	ROC 10:51	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5299 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 14:46	ROC 16:01	11%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 5297 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 22:42	ROC 23:57	13%	4%	0.9%	73%
B6 1186 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:10	ROC 23:49	24%	6%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON