Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2320 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	RSW 11:27	8%	3%	2.2%	89%
B6 2129 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:07	RSW 15:20	22%	6%	2.1%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 46m	99%	86%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 11:59 → RSW 14:08AA 2018	6h 09m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 12:52 → RSW 17:19DL 2219	10h 04m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	8h 04m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	6h 43m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736	8h 03m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	7h 55m	99%	79%
American Details →	JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:36 → RSW 17:22AA 2736	9h 07m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON