Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 683 JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 1189 JFK 15:59 → SAN 19:01 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:55	SAN 11:55	8%	2%	0.7%	82%
B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:45	SAN 10:34	10%	2%	0.8%	90%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	13%	2%	0.7%	77%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	16%	4%	0.8%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	8h 19m	98%	85%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466	8h 06m	96%	84%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 16m Phoenix	PHX 10:34 → SAN 12:01AA 2122	7h 59m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON