Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5460 JFK 14:34 → SAV 16:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest DL 5459 JFK 19:04 → SAV 21:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 14:34	SAV 16:48	10%	3%	0.9%	79%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 08:19	SAV 10:34	10%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 5459 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 19:04	SAV 21:18	16%	3%	1.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON