Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 76 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 06:00 → SFO 09:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 415 JFK 15:45 → SFO 19:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:21	3%	1%	0.8%	90%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	5%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	5%	2%	0.8%	82%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	5%	2%	0.7%	74%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	6%	2%	0.6%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	8%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	9%	3%	0.8%	60%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	9%	2%	0.7%	73%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	10%	2%	0.8%	64%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	11%	3%	0.7%	75%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	16%	3%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:51 → CVG 11:08DL 4985 · flown by Endeavor	1h 58m Hebron	CVG 13:06 → SFO 14:49DL 860	8h 58m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	9h 03m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON