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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 11h 44m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 44m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 9h 07m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:29DL 1172 10h 15m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:49DL 767 2h 17m Los Angeles LAX 16:06 → SJC 17:27DL 1359 9h 27m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 08m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 14:52 → LAX 17:43DL 771 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 20:52 → SJC 22:15DL 1420 10h 23m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 12:29 → PHX 14:43AA 2829 1h 39m Phoenix PHX 16:22 → SJC 18:29AA 2094 9h 00m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON