Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1877 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1877 JFK 08:08 → SJU 12:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 803 JFK 15:44 → SJU 19:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1877 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:08	SJU 12:08	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	SJU 14:14	16%	3%	0.8%	72%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:22	SJU 16:24	16%	5%	0.8%	77%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:44	SJU 19:47	28%	9%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON