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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:16 SNA 11:06 9% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 10% 3% 0.8% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 4h 00m Las Vegas LAS 18:01 → SNA 19:15DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 10h 45m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → JFK 09:14 → PHX 11:24AA 1186 2h 51m Phoenix PHX 14:15 → SNA 15:45AA 2463 9h 31m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835 8h 50m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659 10h 31m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 44m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 11h 00m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:41AS 19 2h 07m Portland PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264 10h 20m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 49m Phoenix PHX 11:07 → SNA 12:44AA 1656 8h 42m 96% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21 50m Seattle SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357 9h 55m 69% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON