tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:49, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:17DL 2286 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 11m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 32m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 49m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 6h 00m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 17:14 → VPS 17:55AA 2197 6h 56m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → VPS 15:20AA 2501 8h 05m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 18:08 → MIA 21:08AA 2603 59m Miami MIA 22:07 → VPS 23:01AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 5h 53m 68% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON