Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1605 JNU 07:20 → SEA 10:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 332 JNU 07:00 → SEA 10:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1605 Delta Flight history →	JNU 07:20	SEA 10:56	9%	5%	1.3%	98%
AS 333 Alaska	JNU 05:02	SEA 08:22	10%	2%	1.3%	no record
AS 66 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 18:31	SEA 21:57	13%	3%	1.0%	83%
AS 7096 Alaska	JNU 23:37	SEA 02:58	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
AS 456 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:54	SEA 17:20	14%	3%	1.2%	72%
AS 332 Alaska	JNU 07:00	SEA 10:20	18%	3%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON