Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2222 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2222 KOA 06:00 → HNL 07:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1187 KOA 20:41 → HNL 21:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2222 Southwest	KOA 06:00	HNL 07:04	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2101 Southwest	KOA 06:08	HNL 07:06	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2223 Southwest	KOA 07:57	HNL 09:01	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2102 Southwest	KOA 08:02	HNL 09:00	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	7%	2%	1.0%	94%
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 07:26	HNL 08:28	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
WN 2103 Southwest	KOA 11:40	HNL 12:38	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2224 Southwest	KOA 11:38	HNL 12:42	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2104 Southwest	KOA 15:47	HNL 16:45	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2105 Southwest	KOA 19:07	HNL 20:05	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:47	HNL 09:49	15%	3%	0.9%	82%
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:26	HNL 11:28	22%	3%	1.0%	76%
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:43	HNL 12:45	22%	3%	1.0%	78%
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:25	HNL 19:23	25%	4%	1.2%	88%worse than usual
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:11	HNL 16:09	25%	5%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:16	HNL 12:18	25%	4%	1.0%	67%
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:09	HNL 20:07	26%	4%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
AS 1097 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:09	HNL 15:07	28%	6%	0.9%	71%
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:15	HNL 17:13	28%	6%	1.0%	74%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:55	HNL 17:53	28%	6%	1.2%	75%
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:14	HNL 13:16	30%	5%	0.9%	72%
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:49	HNL 18:47	30%	5%	1.2%	76%
AS 1187 Alaska	KOA 20:41	HNL 21:39	31%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON