Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2106 Southwest	KOA 20:38	LAS 05:11	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	8h 15m	93%	81%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:25 → HNL 19:23AS 1167	3h 57m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → LAS 08:03 +1AS 808	10h 38m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	96%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:27 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	3h 39m Honolulu	HNL 15:08 → LAS 23:49AS 818	10h 22m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON