Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3933 KOA 13:56 → LAX 22:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 561 KOA 14:29 → LAX 22:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3933 United	KOA 13:56	LAX 22:30	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2372 United Flight history →	KOA 12:57	LAX 21:26	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 486 Delta Flight history →	KOA 22:05	LAX 06:25	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 58 American Flight history →	KOA 15:36	LAX 23:59	10%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:29	LAX 22:36	12%	3%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 32m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 16m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 13m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:25 → HNL 19:23AS 1167	1h 16m Honolulu	HNL 20:39 → LAX 05:00 +1AS 804	7h 35m	89%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON