Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:23, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:23	LIH 09:36	5%	2%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 46m Honolulu	HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033	3h 14m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:26 → HNL 08:28AS 1027	1h 22m Honolulu	HNL 09:50 → LIH 10:44AS 1053	3h 18m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	2h 15m Kahului	OGG 15:43 → LIH 16:30AS 1269	3h 39m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:25 → HNL 14:27AS 1097	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 18:49AS 1143	5h 24m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:11 → HNL 16:09AS 1127	3h 22m Honolulu	HNL 19:31 → LIH 20:21AS 1163	5h 10m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:47 → HNL 09:49AS 1037	1h 30m Honolulu	HNL 11:19 → LIH 12:13AS 1073	3h 26m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:43 → HNL 12:45AS 1077	3h 39m Honolulu	HNL 16:24 → LIH 17:14AS 1123	5h 31m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:15 → HNL 17:13AS 1137	55m Honolulu	HNL 18:08 → LIH 18:49AS 1143	2h 34m	61%	43%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:16 → HNL 12:18AS 1067	52m Honolulu	HNL 13:10 → LIH 14:04AS 1083	2h 48m	65%	42%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:47 → HNL 09:49AS 1037	47m Honolulu	HNL 10:36 → LIH 11:30AS 1063	2h 43m	51%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON