Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:29 pm at Kailua/Kona); 6 already left

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, 9X 504 at 18:58, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


9X 504 Southern Airways Express	KOA 18:58	OGG 20:19	19%	5%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	2h 10m Honolulu	HNL 19:30 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	3h 52m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 21:01 → OGG 21:56AS 1206	4h 54m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:51 → HNL 18:38AS 1147	2h 23m Honolulu	HNL 21:01 → OGG 21:51AS 1226	4h 00m	95%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:51 → HNL 18:38AS 1147	52m Honolulu	HNL 19:30 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	2h 34m	41%	28%
Alaska Details →	KOA 19:07 → HNL 20:10AS 1167	51m Honolulu	HNL 21:01 → OGG 21:56AS 1206	2h 49m	21%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON