Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 833 Alaska	KOA 12:24	PDX 21:03	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 11:14 → PDX 19:42AS 890	7h 23m	93%	83%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:24 → LIH 09:37AS 1029	1h 47m Lihue	LIH 11:24 → PDX 20:00AS 974	8h 36m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:25 → HNL 19:23AS 1167	2h 29m Honolulu	HNL 21:52 → PDX 06:20 +1AS 961	8h 55m	100%	79%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	47m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 53m	82%	72%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	2h 32m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 02m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 20:02 → PDX 22:37AS 794	9h 00m	82%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:27 → HNL 11:29AS 1057	53m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 23m	60%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON