Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops today


AA 664 American Flight history →	KOA 21:45	PHX 06:35	7%	3%	0.9%	95%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → PHX 23:27UA 1653	8h 32m	93%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:27 → HNL 08:29AS 1027	3h 22m Honolulu	HNL 11:51 → PHX 20:47AS 836	10h 20m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 57m San Diego	SAN 20:59 → PHX 22:14AS 1707	8h 37m	95%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON