Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Lihue, leaving 08:24, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 266 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:37	SAN 19:02	18%	3%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:38 → SAN 00:15 +1UA 1389	9h 20m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:25 → HNL 19:23AS 1167	3h 00m Honolulu	HNL 22:23 → SAN 06:56 +1AS 93	9h 31m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 27m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	8h 24m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:24 → LIH 09:37AS 1029	1h 09m Lihue	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	8h 00m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:48 → HNL 09:50AS 1037	2h 49m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 19m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON