Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 60 KTN 09:20 → SEA 12:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 62 KTN 12:58 → SEA 15:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 60 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 09:20	SEA 12:21	15%	5%	1.2%	85%
AS 7005 Alaska	KTN 10:08	SEA 13:11	15%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 17:23	SEA 20:21	16%	5%	1.3%	86%
AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 12:58	SEA 15:46	16%	4%	1.3%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON