Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: AS 7004 at 16:23, 20%.

Nonstops that day


AS 7004 Alaska	KTN 16:23	SIT 17:27	20%	3%	1.9%	no record
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 17:39	SIT 18:32	25%	3%	1.8%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sitka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KTN 20:27 → JNU 21:25AS 69	53m Juneau	JNU 22:18 → SIT 22:59AS 70	2h 32m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON