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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 114 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1447 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1447 ONT 06:01 → OAK 07:24 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 519 LAX 08:20 → SFO 09:43 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1447 Southwest ONT 06:01 OAK 07:24 2% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3780 Southwest SNA 06:51 SJC 08:17 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2326 Southwest LAX 06:57 SJC 08:16 2% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 2639 Southwest SNA 07:27 OAK 08:56 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2454 Southwest LGB 06:56 OAK 08:22 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2468 Southwest ONT 09:01 SJC 10:22 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1647 Southwest BUR 08:44 SJC 10:01 3% 1% 1.5% no record
UA 781 United LAX 06:01 SFO 07:33 3% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2427 Southwest BUR 08:22 OAK 09:41 3% 1% 1.5% no record
WN 2775 Southwest BUR 09:46 OAK 11:05 4% 1% 1.4% no record
WN 2645 Southwest SNA 09:02 SJC 10:27 4% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 690 Southwest ONT 11:14 OAK 12:38 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2767 Southwest SNA 09:12 OAK 10:41 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2569 Southwest BUR 11:02 SJC 12:19 5% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 2338 Southwest LGB 08:54 SJC 10:14 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1681 Southwest SNA 11:39 SJC 13:04 6% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 955 Southwest ONT 13:19 SJC 14:41 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2430 Southwest BUR 19:24 SJC 20:39 6% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 755 Southwest LGB 11:34 OAK 12:59 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3786 Southwest SNA 19:52 SJC 21:16 6% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 2253 Southwest BUR 13:55 SJC 15:12 7% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 377 Southwest SNA 19:00 SJC 20:21 7% 3% 0.7% no record
WN 2570 Southwest BUR 16:01 SJC 17:18 7% 3% 1.3% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest LAX 14:36 SJC 16:09 7% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1531 Southwest LAX 09:14 OAK 10:35 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3094 Southwest ONT 18:23 SJC 19:45 7% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2549 Southwest BUR 12:07 OAK 13:26 7% 2% 1.2% no record
WN 692 Southwest ONT 14:44 OAK 16:08 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 353 Southwest SNA 11:09 OAK 12:38 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2715 Southwest LGB 15:36 SJC 17:03 7% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3185 Southwest ONT 18:14 OAK 19:37 7% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2896 Southwest SNA 14:44 SJC 16:08 7% 2% 0.7% no record
OO 3847 SkyWest LAX 07:50 SJC 09:18 8% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2895 Southwest SNA 17:07 OAK 18:36 8% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 12:57 SJC 14:12 8% 3% 0.6% 90%
WN 2245 Southwest BUR 13:44 OAK 15:03 8% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 2378 Southwest LAX 09:52 SJC 11:10 8% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 2965 Southwest LGB 15:09 OAK 16:35 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2428 Southwest BUR 19:05 OAK 20:23 8% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 2716 Southwest LGB 18:52 SJC 20:12 8% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2712 Southwest LGB 11:41 SJC 13:01 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1692 Southwest SNA 19:24 OAK 20:52 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2449 Southwest LAX 15:11 SJC 16:30 8% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 1380 Delta LAX 09:26 SJC 10:50 9% 3% 1.3% no record
WN 678 Southwest LAX 17:06 SJC 18:24 9% 4% 0.7% no record
WN 4875 Southwest BUR 16:52 OAK 18:11 9% 3% 1.1% no record
WN 3767 Southwest SNA 14:29 OAK 15:58 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 18:17 SJC 19:32 9% 4% 0.6% 88%
WN 1316 Southwest LAX 20:28 SJC 21:46 10% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 1359 Delta LAX 16:06 SJC 17:27 11% 4% 1.3% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 11% 3% 0.9% 94%
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 06:45 SFO 08:30 12% 4% 1.3% 93%
WN 2702 Southwest LAX 13:22 OAK 14:44 12% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 9001 Southwest LAX 16:48 OAK 18:09 12% 4% 0.5% no record
DL 1420 Delta LAX 20:52 SJC 22:15 13% 5% 1.5% no record
UA 488 United Flight history → BUR 07:02 SFO 08:30 14% 4% 0.9% 80%
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:05 SFO 18:33 15% 6% 0.6% 83%
OO 5921 SkyWest ONT 16:11 SFO 18:10 15% 8% 1.0% no record
OO 3313 SkyWest SNA 16:53 SFO 18:31 15% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 489 Southwest LAX 18:45 OAK 20:05 16% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 2922 Southwest BUR 17:17 SFO 18:38 16% 5% 1.6% no record
DL 689 Delta LAX 12:01 SFO 13:26 16% 6% 0.9% no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 16:12 SFO 17:50 17% 7% 1.0% 67%
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:20 SFO 08:51 17% 6% 0.8% no record
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 18:03 SFO 19:33 17% 6% 1.2% 65%
OO 6276 SkyWest LAX 14:07 SFO 15:44 17% 7% 0.8% no record
UA 2199 United LAX 10:59 SFO 12:38 18% 7% 0.6% no record
AS 726 Alaska LAX 17:15 SFO 18:37 18% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 2111 United SNA 18:12 SFO 19:42 18% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 18% 7% 0.6% 61%
UA 1375 United Flight history → ONT 13:50 SFO 15:15 18% 9% 0.6% 57%
OO 5905 SkyWest ONT 11:21 SFO 13:02 19% 9% 0.9% no record
UA 1387 United ONT 08:03 SFO 09:36 19% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 3178 Southwest LAX 15:49 SFO 17:11 19% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1245 United Flight history → LAX 12:05 SFO 13:29 19% 7% 0.6% 79%
AS 1501 Alaska LAX 07:16 SFO 08:39 19% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 469 United Flight history → LAX 13:26 SFO 15:01 19% 8% 0.6% 77%
AA 1110 American LAX 10:55 SFO 12:27 20% 8% 0.7% no record
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:38 SFO 22:14 20% 8% 0.9% 63%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:16 SFO 19:54 20% 7% 0.9% 45%
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 20% 8% 0.6% 68%
WN 2374 Southwest LAX 17:56 SFO 19:18 20% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 20% 6% 0.6% 49%
AS 91 Alaska LAX 14:54 SFO 16:17 21% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 2593 Southwest LAX 11:14 SFO 12:35 21% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 2797 Southwest LAX 13:24 SFO 14:45 21% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 3169 Southwest LAX 07:49 SFO 09:11 21% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 653 United SNA 07:28 SFO 09:08 21% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 2837 United LAX 18:57 SFO 20:36 21% 9% 0.6% no record
OO 3499 SkyWest SNA 19:53 SFO 21:30 21% 7% 1.3% no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 19:27 SFO 21:05 21% 8% 1.3% 50%
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SNA 12:15 SFO 13:53 22% 7% 0.9% 76%
AA 3138 American Flight history → LAX 17:33 SFO 18:46 22% 7% 0.6% 69%
UA 1320 United SNA 14:53 SFO 16:23 22% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 1905 United LAX 09:26 SFO 11:02 23% 8% 0.6% no record
DL 1693 Delta LAX 20:57 SFO 22:22 23% 7% 0.9% no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:39 SFO 10:17 24% 8% 2.9% 50%
OO 3333 SkyWest SNA 14:07 SFO 15:45 24% 9% 1.0% no record
WN 2780 Southwest BUR 08:34 SFO 09:55 24% 6% 2.5% no record
UA 1508 United Flight history → BUR 18:42 SFO 20:10 24% 10% 0.8% 41%
UA 520 United BUR 09:31 SFO 11:14 24% 8% 0.9% no record
OO 3386 SkyWest LAX 10:07 SFO 11:38 25% 7% 0.8% no record
UA 2386 United Flight history → BUR 10:53 SFO 12:21 25% 7% 0.8% 52%
WN 2776 Southwest BUR 13:49 SFO 15:10 25% 7% 1.9% no record
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 26% 7% 0.9% 50%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 26% 6% 0.9% 52%
OO 5616 SkyWest SNA 10:02 SFO 11:39 26% 10% 1.1% no record
OO 3054 SkyWest SNA 09:22 SFO 11:00 26% 11% 1.1% no record
UA 1066 United BUR 16:07 SFO 17:30 27% 7% 0.8% no record
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:41 SFO 11:12 27% 9% 0.8% 63%
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 28% 9% 0.6% 28%
AS 1406 Alaska LAX 13:55 SFO 15:18 29% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1453 United Flight history → BUR 13:45 SFO 15:13 29% 9% 0.8% 66%
AS 519 Alaska LAX 08:20 SFO 09:43 30% 7% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON