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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 50 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1981 LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 7% 2% 1.2% 90%
DL 556 Delta Flight history → SNA 21:00 JFK 05:27 7% 3% 2.9% 89%
UA 1403 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 EWR 14:37 8% 3% 1.0% 92%
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 9% 4% 1.3% 90%
UA 2743 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 EWR 15:37 9% 4% 1.0% 94%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 10% 4% 1.4% 85%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 10% 4% 1.0% 86%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:29 11% 3% 2.0% 93%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 11% 4% 1.1% 91%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 11% 4% 1.6% 86%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 12% 4% 2.1% 85%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 07:27 JFK 15:59 13% 4% 1.5% 80%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:30 JFK 05:01 13% 6% 1.4% 83%
UA 2397 United Flight history → LAX 21:00 EWR 05:18 13% 3% 1.0% 88%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:37 JFK 15:43 13% 4% 1.3% 79%
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 22:23 JFK 07:00 14% 4% 1.6% 70%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 14:30 JFK 23:10 14% 6% 1.3% 71%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 15% 5% 1.2% 81%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:19 JFK 08:37 15% 3% 1.0% 86%
B6 9004 JetBlue LAX 17:57 JFK 02:19 15% 6% 1.3% no record
AS 286 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:03 EWR 15:14 16% 6% 1.5% 90%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 16% 6% 1.1% 79%
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 16% 6% 1.6% 82%
UA 576 United LAX 21:54 EWR 06:02 16% 4% 1.0% no record
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:32 JFK 08:58 17% 4% 1.4% 68%
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 08:30 JFK 17:09 17% 6% 1.4% 76%
DL 991 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:19 JFK 23:25 17% 5% 1.0% 78%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:33 EWR 05:00 18% 5% 1.3% 83%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:35 JFK 21:09 18% 8% 1.5% 82%
UA 2303 United Flight history → LAX 23:15 EWR 07:30 18% 4% 1.0% 77%
UA 2096 United Flight history → LAX 08:20 EWR 16:45 19% 6% 1.1% 83%
UA 1700 United Flight history → LAX 16:10 EWR 00:44 19% 5% 0.9% 84%
B6 454 JetBlue Flight history → ONT 23:51 JFK 08:13 19% 4% 1.2% 72%
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:00 JFK 21:34 20% 9% 1.1% 76%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:06 JFK 17:18 21% 5% 1.2% 89%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 09:49 JFK 18:25 21% 7% 1.6% 80%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:35 JFK 20:11 23% 9% 1.6% 77%
B6 359 JetBlue Flight history → BUR 21:25 JFK 05:59 23% 7% 2.4% 72%
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:16 JFK 21:22 23% 9% 1.1% 74%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:05 JFK 19:46 24% 12% 1.4% 74%
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 25% 12% 1.3% 60%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 25% 11% 1.5% 71%
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 10:08 JFK 18:13 26% 8% 1.2% 83%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:18 JFK 19:30 27% 10% 1.2% 67%
UA 2127 United Flight history → LAX 10:20 EWR 19:04 27% 12% 1.0% 72%
UA 1950 United Flight history → LAX 13:39 EWR 22:04 28% 10% 0.9% 61%
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 11:34 JFK 20:04 30% 12% 1.4% 73%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 30% 14% 1.0% 64%
UA 1855 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 EWR 21:43 31% 11% 1.0% 62%
UA 1981 United Flight history → LAX 11:15 EWR 19:30 32% 12% 0.9% 72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:24 → MSP 06:02DL 430 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864 7h 25m 94% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 7h 37m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 7h 34m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON