Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2777 at 22:46 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day AA 2777 LAX 22:46 → MIA 07:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 858 LAX 10:39 → MIA 18:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	MIA 07:10	11%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 778 American	LAX 20:51	MIA 04:58	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	13%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 573 Delta	LAX 08:18	FLL 16:19	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 477 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:59	FLL 07:05	16%	3%	0.8%	73%
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	16%	7%	1.2%	78%
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:34	FLL 23:48	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	17%	6%	0.8%	87%
AA 467 American	LAX 13:48	MIA 22:03	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	20%	6%	1.2%	77%
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:49	FLL 19:02	21%	6%	1.0%	75%
AA 858 American	LAX 10:39	MIA 18:45	25%	7%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	52m Houston	IAH 12:04 → FLL 15:47UA 1982	7h 02m	94%	80%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41AA 1968	7h 30m	95%	80%
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 32m Houston	IAH 14:39 → FLL 18:10UA 1424	7h 25m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON