Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 688 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–12%.

Safest bet that day UA 688 SNA 08:21 → IAD 16:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 688 United	SNA 08:21	IAD 16:31	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:19	IAD 05:18	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 00:09	IAD 07:45	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 23:05	BWI 07:14	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:27	IAD 06:24	11%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
WN 2333 Southwest	LAX 22:35	BWI 06:32	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:34	IAD 00:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	13%	4%	0.8%	81%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 09:33	BWI 17:43	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:26	IAD 21:33	15%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	17%	7%	0.7%	83%
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	19%	8%	0.7%	78%
WN 4155 Southwest	LAX 10:57	BWI 18:51	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	24%	6%	0.8%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191	6h 48m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON