tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4109 at 10:49, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4109 Southwest LAS 10:49 AMA 14:50 7% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:37 → DFW 14:17AA 2797 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:41AA 3789 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:10 → DFW 11:04AA 2932 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:47AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 6h 37m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:13 → DFW 12:06AA 617 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:35 → AMA 16:00AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:24AA 1482 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → AMA 21:23AA 3607 · flown by Envoy 6h 56m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009 3h 53m Houston IAH 09:43 → AMA 11:41UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 51m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LAS 10:11 → DFW 15:08AA 1584 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:46 → AMA 20:10AA 3990 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 29m Denver DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:43UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest 5h 06m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 40m Denver DEN 19:20 → AMA 21:50UA 5494 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON