tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664 3h 22m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 13h 54m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:56DL 411 11h 37m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:30DL 2261 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 31m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LAS 15:36 → SEA 18:14DL 2880 3h 35m Seattle SEA 21:49 → ANC 00:42 +1DL 936 10h 06m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → LAS 08:05 → DFW 12:56AA 617 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399 12h 23m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323 2h 29m Denver DEN 19:09 → ANC 22:58UA 280 10h 22m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756 1h 21m Portland PDX 17:50 → ANC 20:46AS 1455 7h 38m 93% 81%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 11:00 → PDX 13:20AS 1467 1h 10m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:26AS 315 7h 26m 94% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → LAS 16:25 → SEA 18:58AS 749 58m Seattle SEA 19:56 → ANC 22:40AS 769 7h 15m 74% 57%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 06:21 → SEA 08:39AS 741 55m Seattle SEA 09:34 → ANC 12:19AS 708 6h 58m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON