Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G4 3180 at 13:53, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G4 3180 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 13:53	ATW 19:23	13%	5%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	9h 50m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	89%
American Details →	LAS 12:27 → DFW 17:25AA 1482	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	8h 12m	100%	84%
United Details →	LAS 11:39 → DEN 14:28UA 1006	3h 11m Denver	DEN 17:39 → ATW 20:55UA 2089	7h 16m	98%	81%
United Details →	LAS 12:36 → ORD 18:13UA 314	3h 47m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	8h 47m	99%	80%
United Details →	LAS 09:01 → ORD 14:42UA 1672	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 18:13 → ATW 19:27UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	96%	76%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON