Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4854 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4854 LAS 07:56 → BOI 10:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3314 LAS 19:44 → BOI 22:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4854 Southwest	LAS 07:56	BOI 10:42	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 3120 SkyWest	LAS 15:13	BOI 18:11	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3314 Southwest	LAS 19:44	BOI 22:30	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 2182 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	LAS 17:52	BOI 20:43	29%	12%	3.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON