Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 178 LAS 00:11 → BOS 08:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1020 LAS 11:21 → BOS 19:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 00:11	BOS 08:20	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
B6 1578 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 10:38	BOS 18:56	18%	6%	0.6%	62%
B6 1178 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 12:12	BOS 20:34	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
DL 1020 Delta	LAS 11:21	BOS 19:20	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 10m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 05:50 → DTW 12:44DL 864	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171	7h 19m	98%	88%
United Details →	LAS 00:11 → IAD 07:36UA 284	59m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	7h 09m	94%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON