Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2141 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–11%.

Safest bet that day WN 2141 LAS 06:26 → BUR 07:37 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4107 LAS 11:00 → BUR 12:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2141 Southwest	LAS 06:26	BUR 07:37	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 897 Southwest	LAS 07:34	BUR 08:45	4%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 281 Southwest	LAS 09:17	BUR 10:28	6%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 1961 Southwest	LAS 15:57	BUR 17:08	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2133 Southwest	LAS 11:49	BUR 13:00	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2136 Southwest	LAS 18:56	BUR 20:08	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1525 Southwest	LAS 17:34	BUR 18:45	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1918 Southwest	LAS 14:35	BUR 15:46	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 4107 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:00	BUR 12:15	13%	4%	1.5%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON