Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 716 at 10:27, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 716 Southwest	LAS 10:27	BZN 13:31	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 17m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAS 17:00 → SLC 19:25DL 1672	3h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	6h 23m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	97%	90%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 16m Denver	DEN 11:48 → BZN 13:41UA 741	7h 11m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:31 → SEA 16:16DL 2905	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	98%	88%
American Details →	LAS 06:10 → DFW 11:05AA 2932	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947	8h 30m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	98%	85%
United Details →	LAS 13:36 → DEN 16:40UA 1323	2h 45m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	6h 38m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON