tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1822 Frontier Flight history → LAS 23:16 CLE 06:30 16% 5% 1.4% 63%
WN 4736 Southwest LAS 11:42 CLE 18:34 18% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009 1h 30m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 7h 24m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CLE 10:11DL 1083 6h 36m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 06m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:15 → SLC 15:44DL 1659 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 6h 43m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 16:26 → SEA 19:02AS 749 3h 11m Seattle SEA 22:13 → CLE 05:43 +1AS 269 10h 17m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 1h 59m Chicago ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54UA 1488 6h 54m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 18:20 → SFO 20:02UA 1603 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 23:08 → CLE 06:50 +1UA 2097 9h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:35DL 1339 8h 54m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457 6h 24m 69% 52%
DeltaDetails → LAS 12:10 → JFK 20:39DL 795 51m New York JFK 21:30 → CLE 23:43DL 4946 · flown by Endeavor 8h 34m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON