Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2751 LAS 23:45 → CLT 07:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2470 LAS 13:15 → CLT 20:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2751 American Flight history →	LAS 23:45	CLT 07:04	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 2957 American Flight history →	LAS 07:00	CLT 14:35	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 2330 American	LAS 00:12	CLT 06:56	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 8 American	LAS 08:05	CLT 15:32	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2981 American Flight history →	LAS 11:11	CLT 18:41	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 2470 American Flight history →	LAS 13:15	CLT 20:46	16%	4%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON