tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4706 Southwest LAS 08:40 CMH 15:27 11% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4857 Southwest LAS 16:18 CMH 23:03 16% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 27m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → CMH 00:24 +1DL 1459 9h 43m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470 2h 56m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 8h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → ATL 13:00DL 755 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:21 → CMH 16:03DL 2892 7h 03m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:32 → CMH 22:16DL 1501 8h 35m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:54 → MSP 16:56DL 2262 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → CMH 23:07DL 1356 8h 13m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:00 → ORD 05:26UA 2102 1h 50m Chicago ORD 07:16 → CMH 09:40UA 451 6h 40m 96% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:56 → EWR 18:00UA 1784 55m Newark EWR 18:55 → CMH 20:57UA 3481 · flown by Republic 8h 01m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON