Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2794 at 22:55, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2794 Delta Flight history →	LAS 22:55	CVG 05:42	8%	2%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 00:35 → MSP 05:45DL 2834	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	6h 28m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273	6h 03m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:29 → MSP 14:31DL 2261	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:39DL 703	6h 10m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	8h 27m	98%	87%
United Details →	LAS 00:50 → IAH 05:50UA 2009	1h 40m Houston	IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa	7h 09m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → CVG 19:05DL 558	9h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:54 → MSP 16:56DL 2262	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	8h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → CVG 21:45DL 2248	8h 04m	97%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → CVG 23:40UA 1223	6h 15m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON