Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 284 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 284 LAS 08:00 → DAL 12:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4118 LAS 16:23 → DAL 20:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 284 Southwest	LAS 08:00	DAL 12:33	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 245 Southwest	LAS 10:45	DAL 15:18	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 378 Southwest	LAS 17:36	DAL 22:09	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 174 Southwest	LAS 14:21	DAL 19:01	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4118 Southwest	LAS 16:23	DAL 20:58	17%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON